KXAIRELEASE-26
Will any of the major AI companies announce they are no longer releasing their best AI models to the public before 2026?
$0.11
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.05 | $0.08 | $0.11 | 6.0¢ | 8.0% |
| NO | $0.89 | $0.92 | $0.95 | 6.0¢ | 92.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.05 | 0 | $0.11 | 0 |
| NO | $0.89 | 0 | $0.95 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.08 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.92 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.050 – 0.110 |
| Band Width | 0.060 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -3.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -3.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 600 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | -0.01 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | -1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 3714531 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 4597 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If any of OpenAI, xAI, Anthropic, or Google announce that they will no longer release frontier AI models to the public before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
An announcement is sufficient to resolve the market to yes, even if the policy is not in effect until after <date>. Releasing frontier models only behind a paywall is not sufficient to resolve the market to "Yes".
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-08T22:32:13.918407
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