KXALIENS-26
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2026?
$0.08
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.06 | $0.07 | $0.08 | 2.0¢ | 7.0% |
| NO | $0.92 | $0.93 | $0.94 | 2.0¢ | 93.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.06 | 4809 | $0.08 | 2129 |
| NO | $0.92 | 2129 | $0.94 | 4809 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.0739 | 0.3863 | 43506 |
| $0.9261 | -0.3863 | 24180 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.060 – 0.080 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | 0.0039 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | 2026-01-01 10:00 AM ET (99d 3h 12m) |
Early Close: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 18968036 |
| 24h Volume | 38403 |
| Open Interest | 333664 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.12 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 1960.94 | 110562.09 |
| 0.25 | 5691.56 | 106555.42 |
| 0.50 | 8355.46 | 103823.52 |
| 0.75 | 9911.73 | 102267.25 |
| 0.95 | 19047.92 | 95761.61 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterresterial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-24T11:47:28.288717
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