KXAMERICAPARTY2028-28SEP01
Will a party founded by Elon Musk contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?
$0.25

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.16 $0.2 $0.25 9.0¢ 20.5%
NO $0.75 $0.8 $0.84 9.0¢ 79.5%
Overround (asks): 9.0% Underround (bids): 9.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.16 0 $0.25 0
NO $0.75 0 $0.84 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.2 0.0 0
$0.8 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.1600.250
Band Width0.090

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-4.5
NO Edge (ticks)-4.5
Vig (bps/h)900

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($)
ΔSpread (¢)
ΔLast Trade ($)
Micro Pull ($)
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens
Last Trade (Close) ()
Expected Expiration ()

Book & Activity

Liquidity560146
24h Volume0
Open Interest1972
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If a party founded by Elon Musk contests the 2028 U.S. presidential election by having at least one candidate officially on the ballot before Sep 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
A party "contests" an election if they have at least one candidate on the official ballot under the party name, participate in a formal coalition on the ballot, or have officially endorsed candidates with clear party affiliation. The party does NOT contest if they only endorse other parties' candidates, announce a boycott, fail to meet ballot access requirements, or only challenge results after voting without having participated. For multi-round elections, appearing on any round's ballot counts. For federal systems, contesting in any state/province counts for the federal election. If the election is postponed but occurs within one year, the contract remains valid. If cancelled or not held within one year, the market resolves to No.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-08T22:30:27.904252

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