KXARGENTINAHOUSETHIRD-25OCT26-3-PUNI
Will Provincias Unidas finish 3rd in Argentina?
$0.99
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.95 | $0.97 | $0.99 | 4.0¢ | 97.0% |
| NO | $0.01 | $0.03 | $0.05 | 4.0¢ | 3.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.95 | 0 | $0.99 | 0 |
| NO | $0.01 | 0 | $0.05 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.97 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.03 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.950 – 0.990 |
| Band Width | 0.040 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -2.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -2.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 400 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 330580 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 243 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Provincias Unidas finishes in 3rd place in 2025 Argentine Chamber of Deputies election in Argentina according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Ranking is determined by the specified counting method. For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage. For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place). For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals. For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order. In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to No unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to No.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-08T22:32:41.802495
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