KXARGENTINAMOSTGAIN-25OCT26-LLA
Will La Libertad Avanza have the greatest seat gain in the 2025 Argentine Chamber of Deputies election?
:: LLA
$0.66

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.6 $0.63 $0.66 6.0¢ 63.0%
NO $0.34 $0.37 $0.4 6.0¢ 37.0%
Overround (asks): 6.0% Underround (bids): 6.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.6 10 $0.66 38
NO $0.34 38 $0.4 10
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.6125 -0.5833 108
$0.3875 0.5833 270

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.6000.660
Band Width0.060

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-3.0
NO Edge (ticks)-3.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.01
ΔSpread (¢)
ΔLast Trade ($) -0.01
Micro Pull ($) -0.0175
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-07 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-10-26 10:00 AM ET (397d 9h 11m)
Expected Expiration2026-10-26 10:00 AM ET (397d 9h 11m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity304358
24h Volume100
Open Interest1270
OI Turnover (24h)0.08
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0520.01131.22
0.2520.01131.22
0.5020.01131.22
0.75630.34520.88
0.95668.34520.88
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If La Libertad Avanza experiences the greatest net gain of seats relative to the number of seats held immediately prior to the 2025 Argentine Chamber of Deputies election as certified by the relevant electoral authority before Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Seat changes are measured as the absolute difference between seats held immediately before the election and seats held after certification. For newly formed parties that did not contest the prior election, seats gained equals seats won. If the total number of legislative seats changes, the calculation is still based on the net difference in party seats, not proportional representation. If multiple parties tie for the greatest gain/loss, each tied party's market resolves to $1 divided by the number of tied parties. If there are no net changes for any party, both gain and loss markets resolve to No. Seats held by independents who join a party after the election do not count. Delayed or canceled seat results are excluded unless certified before the expiration date. Post-election resignations, deaths, or appointments are not considered. If the election is postponed beyond one year or cancelled entirely, markets resolve to last fair market price.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:48:01.595089

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