KXARGENTINAMOSTGAIN-25OCT26-LLA
Will La Libertad Avanza have the greatest seat gain in the 2025 Argentine Chamber of Deputies election?
:: LLA
$0.66
Market Snapshot
Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
YES | $0.6 | $0.63 | $0.66 | 6.0¢ | 63.0% |
NO | $0.34 | $0.37 | $0.4 | 6.0¢ | 37.0% |
Order Book (Top)
Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
---|---|---|---|---|
YES | $0.6 | 10 | $0.66 | 38 |
NO | $0.34 | 38 | $0.4 | 10 |
Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
---|---|---|
$0.6125 | -0.5833 | 108 |
$0.3875 | 0.5833 | 270 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
Prob Band (0–1) | 0.600 – 0.660 |
Band Width | 0.060 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
YES Edge (ticks) | -3.0 |
NO Edge (ticks) | -3.0 |
Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
Metric | Value |
---|---|
ΔMid ($) | -0.01 |
ΔSpread (¢) | — |
ΔLast Trade ($) | -0.01 |
Micro Pull ($) | -0.0175 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
Opens | 2025-09-07 10:00 AM ET |
Last Trade (Close) | 2026-10-26 10:00 AM ET (397d 9h 11m) |
Expected Expiration | 2026-10-26 10:00 AM ET (397d 9h 11m) |
Book & Activity
Liquidity | 304358 |
24h Volume | 100 |
Open Interest | 1270 |
OI Turnover (24h) | 0.08 |
Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
---|---|---|
0.05 | 20.0 | 1131.22 |
0.25 | 20.0 | 1131.22 |
0.50 | 20.0 | 1131.22 |
0.75 | 630.34 | 520.88 |
0.95 | 668.34 | 520.88 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If La Libertad Avanza experiences the greatest net gain of seats relative to the number of seats held immediately prior to the 2025 Argentine Chamber of Deputies election as certified by the relevant electoral authority before Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Seat changes are measured as the absolute difference between seats held immediately before the election and seats held after certification. For newly formed parties that did not contest the prior election, seats gained equals seats won. If the total number of legislative seats changes, the calculation is still based on the net difference in party seats, not proportional representation. If multiple parties tie for the greatest gain/loss, each tied party's market resolves to $1 divided by the number of tied parties. If there are no net changes for any party, both gain and loss markets resolve to No. Seats held by independents who join a party after the election do not count. Delayed or canceled seat results are excluded unless certified before the expiration date. Post-election resignations, deaths, or appointments are not considered. If the election is postponed beyond one year or cancelled entirely, markets resolve to last fair market price.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:48:01.595089
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