KXARREST-27JAN-JKER

Will John Kerry be arrested before Jan 2027?

$0.12

Market Snapshot

	Bid	Mid	Ask	Spread	Prob (Mid)
YES	$0.08	$0.1	$0.12	4.0¢	10.0%
NO	$0.88	$0.9	$0.92	4.0¢	90.0%

Overround (asks): 4.0% Underround (bids): 4.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

Side	Best Bid	Bid Size	Best Ask	Ask Size
YES	$0.08	0	$0.12	0
NO	$0.88	0	$0.92	0

Microprice	Imbalance	Depth ±$0.05
$0.1	0.0	0
$0.9	0.0	0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1)	0.080 – 0.120
Band Width	0.040

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)	-2.0
NO Edge (ticks)	-2.0
Vig (bps/h)	400

State Change & Momentum

Metric	Value
ΔMid ($)	0.01
ΔSpread (¢)	1.0
ΔLast Trade ($)	—
Micro Pull ($)	—

Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens	—
Last Trade (Close)	— (—)
Expected Expiration	— (—)

Book & Activity

Liquidity	1148832
24h Volume	39
Open Interest	2207
OI Turnover (24h)	0.02
Status	active

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

Target	Cost ↑	Cost ↓
0.05	0.0	0.0
0.25	0.0	0.0
0.50	0.0	0.0
0.75	0.0	0.0
0.95	0.0	0.0

↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary

If John Kerry is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-08T20:59:21.079244

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