KXBIHARELECTION-25NOV01-NDA
Will National Democratic Alliance win the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election?
$1.0

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.8 $0.9 $1.0 20.0¢ 81.82%
NO $0.0 $0.2 $0.2 20.0¢ 19.64%
Overround (asks): 20.0% Underround (bids): 20.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.8 0 $1.0 0
NO $0.0 0 $0.2 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.9 0.0 0
$0.2 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.8001.000
Band Width0.200

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-18.18
NO Edge (ticks)-1.82
Vig (bps/h)1999

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) 0.13
ΔSpread (¢) 13.0
ΔLast Trade ($) 0.05
Micro Pull ($)
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens
Last Trade (Close) ()
Expected Expiration ()

Book & Activity

Liquidity-231895
24h Volume1255
Open Interest3439
OI Turnover (24h)0.36
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If National Democratic Alliance wins 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins unless a different party forms government through coalition. Markets resolve based on official results, not exit polls or projections. If elections are postponed beyond the expiration date, markets resolve to No. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-09T03:03:44.503150

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