KXBLOCKH1B-26JAN01
Will federal courts block Trump's September 19th proclamation regarding H-1B visas before Jan 1, 2026?
$0.46

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.41 $0.43 $0.46 5.0¢ 43.5%
NO $0.54 $0.56 $0.59 5.0¢ 56.5%
Overround (asks): 5.0% Underround (bids): 5.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.41 0 $0.46 0
NO $0.54 0 $0.59 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.43 0.0 0
$0.56 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.4100.460
Band Width0.050

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-2.5
NO Edge (ticks)-2.5
Vig (bps/h)500

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.04
ΔSpread (¢) 4.0
ΔLast Trade ($)
Micro Pull ($)
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens
Last Trade (Close) ()
Expected Expiration ()

Book & Activity

Liquidity500724
24h Volume8
Open Interest3289
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If federal courts have blocked Trump's September 19th proclamation regarding H-1B visas before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
For this market, "blocking" means a court-issued order or judgment that legally prevents the Executive Branch from carrying out a policy, rule, executive action, or enforcement directive at the federal level. Blocking actions include preliminary injunctions, permanent injunctions, restraining orders, vacatur of a rule, stays, declaratory judgments, and writs of mandamus. The court order must be binding and enforceable within the stated timeframe. If a blocking order occurs before the deadline, the market resolves to Yes immediately, even if enforcement is to occur after the deadline. For "unblocking," this refers to courts lifting previous blocks, denying requests for injunctions, or ruling in favor of allowing the executive action to proceed.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-08T21:04:39.782608

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