KXBLOCKH1B-26JAN01
Will federal courts block Trump's September 19th proclamation regarding H-1B visas before Jan 1, 2026?
$0.46
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.41 | $0.43 | $0.46 | 5.0¢ | 43.5% |
| NO | $0.54 | $0.56 | $0.59 | 5.0¢ | 56.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.41 | 0 | $0.46 | 0 |
| NO | $0.54 | 0 | $0.59 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.43 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.56 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.410 – 0.460 |
| Band Width | 0.050 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 500 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | -0.04 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 4.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 500724 |
| 24h Volume | 8 |
| Open Interest | 3289 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If federal courts have blocked Trump's September 19th proclamation regarding H-1B visas before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
For this market, "blocking" means a court-issued order or judgment that legally prevents the Executive Branch from carrying out a policy, rule, executive action, or enforcement directive at the federal level. Blocking actions include preliminary injunctions, permanent injunctions, restraining orders, vacatur of a rule, stays, declaratory judgments, and writs of mandamus. The court order must be binding and enforceable within the stated timeframe. If a blocking order occurs before the deadline, the market resolves to Yes immediately, even if enforcement is to occur after the deadline. For "unblocking," this refers to courts lifting previous blocks, denying requests for injunctions, or ruling in favor of allowing the executive action to proceed.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-08T21:04:39.782608
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