KXBOOKAWARDSFIC-25-PAL

Will Palaver win Fiction at the 76th National Book Awards?

:: Bryan Washington

$0.23

Market Snapshot

	Bid	Mid	Ask	Spread	Prob (Mid)
YES	$0.16	$0.2	$0.23	7.0¢	19.5%
NO	$0.77	$0.81	$0.84	7.0¢	80.5%

Overround (asks): 7.0% Underround (bids): 7.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

Side	Best Bid	Bid Size	Best Ask	Ask Size
YES	$0.16	0	$0.23	0
NO	$0.77	0	$0.84	0

Microprice	Imbalance	Depth ±$0.05
$0.2	0.0	0
$0.81	0.0	0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1)	0.160 – 0.230
Band Width	0.070

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)	-3.5
NO Edge (ticks)	-3.5
Vig (bps/h)	700

State Change & Momentum

Metric	Value
ΔMid ($)	0.01
ΔSpread (¢)	-1.0
ΔLast Trade ($)	—
Micro Pull ($)	—

Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens	—
Last Trade (Close)	— (—)
Expected Expiration	— (—)

Book & Activity

Liquidity	340332
24h Volume	0
Open Interest	203
OI Turnover (24h)	0.0
Status	active

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

Target	Cost ↑	Cost ↓
0.05	0.0	0.0
0.25	0.0	0.0
0.50	0.0	0.0
0.75	0.0	0.0
0.95	0.0	0.0

↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary

If 'Palaver' wins the Fiction award at 76th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Secondary

The 76th National Book Awards will take place Wednesday, November 19, 2025.

Related Markets

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-08T21:06:03.809619

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