KXBRBALLOT-26-LULA

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?

$0.98

Market Snapshot

	Bid	Mid	Ask	Spread	Prob (Mid)
YES	$0.92	$0.95	$0.98	6.0¢	95.0%
NO	$0.02	$0.05	$0.08	6.0¢	5.0%

Overround (asks): 6.0% Underround (bids): 6.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

Side	Best Bid	Bid Size	Best Ask	Ask Size
YES	$0.92	0	$0.98	0
NO	$0.02	0	$0.08	0

Microprice	Imbalance	Depth ±$0.05
$0.95	0.0	0
$0.05	0.0	0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1)	0.920 – 0.980
Band Width	0.060

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)	-3.0
NO Edge (ticks)	-3.0
Vig (bps/h)	600

State Change & Momentum

Metric	Value
ΔMid ($)	—
ΔSpread (¢)	—
ΔLast Trade ($)	—
Micro Pull ($)	—

Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens	—
Last Trade (Close)	— (—)
Expected Expiration	— (—)

Book & Activity

Liquidity	774398
24h Volume	0
Open Interest	4214
OI Turnover (24h)	0.0
Status	active

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

Target	Cost ↑	Cost ↓
0.05	0.0	0.0
0.25	0.0	0.0
0.50	0.0	0.0
0.75	0.0	0.0
0.95	0.0	0.0

↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary

If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is on the official ballot for the next Brazilian Presidential election first round, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-08T19:31:59.028298

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