KXBTCD-25SEP2117-T115749.99
Bitcoin price on Sep 21, 2025?
$115,750 or above
$0.51
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.39 | $0.45 | $0.51 | 12.0¢ | 45.0% |
| NO | $0.49 | $0.55 | $0.61 | 12.0¢ | 55.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.39 | 250 | $0.51 | 45 |
| NO | $0.49 | 45 | $0.61 | 250 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.4917 | 0.6949 | 0 |
| $0.5083 | -0.6949 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.390 – 0.510 |
| Band Width | 0.120 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -6.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -6.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 229 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.45 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 12.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | 0.33 |
| Micro Pull ($) | 0.0417 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | 2025-09-20 04:00 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-09-21 05:00 PM ET (0d 5h 8m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-09-21 05:05 PM ET (0d 5h 13m) |
Early Close: nan
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 7939559 |
| 24h Volume | 3700 |
| Open Interest | 1904 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 1.94 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 641.7 | 64200.21 |
| 0.25 | 641.7 | 64200.21 |
| 0.50 | 889.48 | 63952.43 |
| 0.75 | 1331.43 | 63510.48 |
| 0.95 | 1331.43 | 63510.48 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 115749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Sending data to LLM will refresh in a few minutes to see data
Last updated: 2025-09-21T15:51:12.987367
Technical Indicators
Bitcoin Event Probabilities (Yes = BRTI ≥ threshold at event time)
| Ticker | Event (ET) | Threshold ($) | Current Price ($) | Ensemble | A Const | B Real | C EWMA | D Park |
|---|
A: constant annual σ; B: realized σ (last hour); C: EWMA σ; D: Parkinson σ (if highs/lows available). Ensemble = mean of available models.
Volatility Models
| σ A (Const) | 0.6 |
| σ B (Realized, 1h) | 0.0845 |
| σ C (EWMA, 1h) | 0.0737 |
| σ D (Parkinson) | 0.0507 |
| μ (Last-hour drift) | 2.234592 |