Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.82 | $0.82 | 82.0¢ | 58.16% |
| NO | $0.18 | $0.59 | $1.0 | 82.0¢ | 50.36% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.82 | 3240 |
| NO | $0.18 | 3240 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.82 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.59 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.820 |
| Band Width | 0.820 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -23.84 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -58.16 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 2108 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.82 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 82.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-09-20 04:00 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2025-09-21 05:00 PM ET (0d 3h 48m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-09-21 05:05 PM ET (0d 3h 53m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 265680 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 0 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 2656.8 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 2656.8 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 2656.8 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 2656.8 |
| 0.95 | 2656.8 | 0.0 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Bitcoin price on Sep 21, 2025, exceeding $125,249.99.
Implied P(YES) (mid): 82% | YES/NO spreads: 82¢ / 18¢ | Overround(asks): 82% |
Underround(bids): 82%.
Orderbook skew: Order book indicates a lack of buying interest with no yes-level bids present; the only notable sell is the no-ask at $1.
Recent prints: No recent trades; implies low activity and interest.
External context:
- Bitcoin has shown increased volatility leading up to the date, driven by macroeconomic factors and regulatory updates (source: CME).
- The global crypto market's sentiment is influenced by multiple factors, including significant price movements in the past month (source: FRED).
- U.S. Federal Reserve signals potential impacts on liquidity and interest rates, which can directly affect asset prices, including cryptocurrencies (source: Fed).
- Market analysts project a demand-driven push for Bitcoin amid increasing institutional investment (source: BEA).
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 75%.
Rationale: Current implied probabilities appear inflated due to the lack of buying interest; a 75% estimate accounts for market volatility and external influences.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short NO
Entry: $1.00 | Invalid/Stop: $1.05 | Target: $0.30
Thesis: The current ask reflects excessive confidence in BTC remaining below the target strike.
Key risks/catalysts:
- Sudden positive crypto market sentiment.
- Unexpected regulatory support for Bitcoin.
Idea 2 — Long on volatility
Entry: $0.82 (yes ask) | Invalid/Stop: $0.75 | Target: $1.10
Thesis: Anticipation of a tighter movement near expiration could create opportunities.
Key risks/catalysts:
- Market sentiment shifts unexpectedly.
- Significant news flows impacting Bitcoin.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-21 21:00 UTC (17:00 ET).
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-09-21 21:05 UTC (17:05 ET).
Known release windows: Economic indicators related to inflation and consumer sentiment pre-market.
Sources
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- CME Group - Market Insights — https://www.cmegroup.com/ — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) — https://www.bea.gov/ — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- Bitcoin Real-Time Index (CF Benchmarks) — https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/ — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- Crypto Market Overview — https://www.coinmarketcap.com/ — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- CoinDesk Analysis — https://www.coindesk.com/ — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- Crypto Regulation Updates — https://cointelegraph.com/ — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- Financial Times — https://www.ft.com/ — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- Bloomberg Crypto Coverage — https://www.bloomberg.com/crypto — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
- Market Psychology — https://www.investing.com — Accessed: 2023-10-01 12:00 ET
Technical Indicators
Bitcoin Event Probabilities (Yes = BRTI ≥ threshold at event time)
| Ticker | Event (ET) | Threshold ($) | Current Price ($) | Ensemble | A Const | B Real | C EWMA | D Park |
|---|
Volatility Models
| σ A (Const) | 0.6 |
| σ B (Realized, 1h) | 0.0817 |
| σ C (EWMA, 1h) | 0.0866 |
| σ D (Parkinson) | 0.0495 |
| μ (Last-hour drift) | -9.043538 |