KXCAPCONTROL-29
Will Trump impose capital controls before 2029?
$0.24

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.15 $0.2 $0.24 9.0¢ 19.5%
NO $0.76 $0.81 $0.85 9.0¢ 80.5%
Overround (asks): 9.0% Underround (bids): 9.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.15 0 $0.24 0
NO $0.76 0 $0.85 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.2 0.0 0
$0.81 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.1500.240
Band Width0.090

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-4.5
NO Edge (ticks)-4.5
Vig (bps/h)900

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($)
ΔSpread (¢)
ΔLast Trade ($)
Micro Pull ($)
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens
Last Trade (Close) ()
Expected Expiration ()

Book & Activity

Liquidity11795684
24h Volume0
Open Interest613
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If the United States has imposed new capital controls in an attempt to limit capital from leaving the United States and going to any country (as opposed to on one specific country) before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Examples of capital controls for the purposes of this Contract include: direct restrictions on outbound transfers (e.g. a regulation requiring government approval or an outright ban on transactions outside of the country above some threshold), asset freeze orders (e.g. ordering banks not to issue cash en masse), setting a rule on the absolute cap of cash that can be physically carried out of the country (as opposed to merely mandating reporting of an amount), foreign exchange purchase limits, and new reporting requirements on capital transfers. Restrictions on capital from coming into the United States are not included in the Payout Criterion.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-08T22:33:40.415161

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