KXCARPENTERWEEKSNUM1-26JAN01-2
Will Sabrina Carpenter spend at least 2 weeks at #1 on Billboard Hot 100 during 2025?
$0.04
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.03 | $0.04 | $0.04 | 1.0¢ | 3.5% |
| NO | $0.96 | $0.96 | $0.97 | 1.0¢ | 96.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.03 | 0 | $0.04 | 0 |
| NO | $0.96 | 0 | $0.97 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.04 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.96 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.030 – 0.040 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 100 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 173023 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 3465 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Sabrina Carpenter accumulates at least 2 weeks at the #1 position on Billboard Hot 100 during 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Each chart week where the artist/media holds the #1 position counts as 1 week. Multiple songs by the same artist at #1 in the same chart week count as 1 week total. Chart weeks are determined by the official chart dating system. Retroactive chart corrections published during the time period will be counted; corrections published after the time period will not affect the count. If multiple artists tie for #1 in any given week, all tied artists receive credit for that week. Songs where the artist is credited as featured artist (e.g., "feat." or "ft.") count toward the total. The market tracks newly released chart iterations during the specified time period.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-08T22:35:37.932721
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