KXCBDECISIONCHINA-25NOV19-HOLD
Will the People's Bank of China Maintain current rate at the Nov 2025 PBOC meeting?
$0.95
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.93 | $0.94 | $0.95 | 2.0¢ | 94.0% |
| NO | $0.05 | $0.06 | $0.07 | 2.0¢ | 6.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.93 | 0 | $0.95 | 0 |
| NO | $0.05 | 0 | $0.07 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.94 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.06 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.930 – 0.950 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 200 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | -1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | -0.02 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 1065956 |
| 24h Volume | 164 |
| Open Interest | 590 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.28 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the People's Bank of China takes the action of Maintain current rate at Nov 2025 PBOC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The market resolves based on the official One-Year Loan Prime Rate announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-13T02:36:53.184153
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