KXCPICOREYOY-25OCT-T3.1
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in October 2025?
3.1
$0.29
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.27 | $0.28 | $0.29 | 2.0¢ | 28.0% |
| NO | $0.71 | $0.72 | $0.73 | 2.0¢ | 72.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.27 | 0 | $0.29 | 0 |
| NO | $0.71 | 0 | $0.73 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.28 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.72 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.270 – 0.290 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 200 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.03 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | -2.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | 0.07 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 5770893 |
| 24h Volume | 25327 |
| Open Interest | 28180 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.9 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.1% in the twelve months ending October 2025 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-11T16:51:53.395359
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