KXELEANORRUN-26MAR18
Will Eleanor Holmes Norton announce a run for Delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives from the District of Columbia's at-large district in 2026?
$0.2
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.16 | $0.18 | $0.2 | 4.0¢ | 18.0% |
| NO | $0.8 | $0.82 | $0.84 | 4.0¢ | 82.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.16 | 0 | $0.2 | 0 |
| NO | $0.8 | 0 | $0.84 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.18 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.82 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.160 – 0.200 |
| Band Width | 0.040 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -2.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -2.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 400 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 668434 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 476 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Eleanor Holmes Norton has announced that they will run for Delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives from the District of Columbia's at-large district in 2026 before Mar 18, 2026, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-08T22:40:05.605235
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