KXELECTIONMOVABQ-25DEC09-P22
Will Tim Keller win between 20% and 24.99% of votes in 2025 Albuquerque mayoral election runoff?
$0.16
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.11 | $0.14 | $0.16 | 5.0¢ | 13.5% |
| NO | $0.84 | $0.86 | $0.89 | 5.0¢ | 86.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.11 | 0 | $0.16 | 0 |
| NO | $0.84 | 0 | $0.89 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.14 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.86 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.110 – 0.160 |
| Band Width | 0.050 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 500 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.04 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 2.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 526965 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 400 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the margin of victory for Tim Keller in the 2025 Albuquerque mayoral election runoff in the Albuquerque falls between 20% and 24.99% percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The margin of victory is calculated based on the margin type specified. For percentage points: the difference between the candidate's vote share and their closest competitor's share. For raw votes: the difference in total vote counts. For electoral votes: the difference in electoral votes won. Positive margins indicate the candidate won, negative margins indicate they lost, and zero indicates a tie. For uncontested races, the margin is 100 percentage points or total votes cast. Write-in votes are aggregated as a single candidate if not individually reported. Only certified results are used for resolution. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond expiration, or no certified results are available, all markets resolve to No. Recounts that change the certified margin before expiration use the most recent certified results.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-08T22:37:26.305591
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