KXELECTIONMOVZOHRAN-25-ZMAM-B7.5
Margin of victory for Zohran Mamdani in the Mayoral Election?
$0.43
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.39 | $0.41 | $0.43 | 4.0¢ | 41.0% |
| NO | $0.57 | $0.59 | $0.61 | 4.0¢ | 59.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.39 | 0 | $0.43 | 0 |
| NO | $0.57 | 0 | $0.61 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.41 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.59 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.390 – 0.430 |
| Band Width | 0.040 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -2.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -2.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 400 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | -0.02 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | -0.01 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 73857992 |
| 24h Volume | 110587 |
| Open Interest | 911915 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.12 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the popular vote margin of victory is 6-8.99% for Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 NYC Mayoral Election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The margin of victory is calculated by taking the voting percentage received by Zohran Mamdani minus the percentage of the person finishing immediately behind him, or immediately ahead if he loses. Only certified results are used for resolution. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond expiration, or no certified results are available, all markets resolve to No. Recounts that change the certified margin before expiration use the most recent certified results.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-08T17:46:47.405160
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