KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-524
Will the President sign between 500 and 549 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
$0.13

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.1 $0.12 $0.13 3.0¢ 11.5%
NO $0.87 $0.89 $0.9 3.0¢ 88.5%
Overround (asks): 3.0% Underround (bids): 3.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.1 0 $0.13 0
NO $0.87 0 $0.9 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.12 0.0 0
$0.89 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.1000.130
Band Width0.030

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-1.5
NO Edge (ticks)-1.5
Vig (bps/h)300

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($)
ΔSpread (¢)
ΔLast Trade ($)
Micro Pull ($)
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens
Last Trade (Close) ()
Expected Expiration ()

Book & Activity

Liquidity230948
24h Volume0
Open Interest50
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If the President signs between 500 to 549 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
An Executive Order must be formally titled "Executive Order" followed by a number, signed by the President, and published in the Federal Register. Presidential Memoranda, Proclamations, Determinations, and other executive actions that are not formally numbered Executive Orders do not count. The signing date as recorded in the Federal Register determines which period an Executive Order belongs to, using ET timezone. Classified Executive Orders count if acknowledged by number. Executive Orders that are later revoked still count for the period they were signed. The Federal Register is the primary source; alternative sources are used only if the Federal Register explicitly states data is incomplete.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-08T22:37:24.501749

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