KXEPSTEINLIST-26-SHAW
Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2025?
$0.24

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.16 $0.2 $0.24 8.0¢ 20.0%
NO $0.76 $0.8 $0.84 8.0¢ 80.0%
Overround (asks): 8.0% Underround (bids): 8.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.16 0 $0.24 0
NO $0.76 0 $0.84 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.2 0.0 0
$0.8 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.1600.240
Band Width0.080

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-4.0
NO Edge (ticks)-4.0
Vig (bps/h)800

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($)
ΔSpread (¢) -1.0
ΔLast Trade ($) 0.01
Micro Pull ($)
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens
Last Trade (Close) ()
Expected Expiration ()

Book & Activity

Liquidity795622
24h Volume19
Open Interest12590
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Stephen Hawking is named in any context in any documents held by the federal government directly regarding Jeffrey Epstein and/or his crimes released before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The context in which the subject appears does not matter for resolution. The subject is considered to appear in the documents when either the exact term, phrase, or name specified appears in the content of the documents, or the subject is present by way of commonly used abbreviation, direct synonym, or unmistakable reference including in any official appendices, footnotes, or tables. The documents must be publicly released after Issuance and before the end date. The documents directly issued and officially published by the relevant institution or entity, leaks of the documents, and media coverage by Source Agencies count, unless otherwise specified by the Exchange. If the documents are revised after publication, all publicly released versions prior to Expiration will be used. If a correction or update nullifies the appearance of the subject, the market may still resolve to Yes based on original reporting. The release time of the documents is noted to be when the documents are made available to the public either directly or through third-party media reports. If a document is heavily redacted, only visible, legible, and unambiguous references count.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-08T19:21:00.404621

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