KXETHMAXM-25DEC01-4600
Will Ethereum reach above $4600 by Dec 1, 2025 at 12:00AM ET?
$0.09
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.07 | $0.08 | $0.09 | 2.0¢ | 8.0% |
| NO | $0.91 | $0.92 | $0.93 | 2.0¢ | 92.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.07 | 0 | $0.09 | 0 |
| NO | $0.91 | 0 | $0.93 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.08 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.92 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.070 – 0.090 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 200 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.02 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | -2.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 1904528 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1622 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the spot price of Ethereum in U.S. dollars is above $4600 by Dec 1, 2025 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Ethereum price is measured using the CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI) with a trimmed mean calculation that excludes the top 20% and bottom 20% of minute-by-minute values between market issuance and the target time. The market resolves based on whether the trimmed mean price reaches the specified level by the deadline. If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No. Price data from CF Benchmarks is considered authoritative and revisions after expiration do not affect market resolution.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-08T17:46:13.215678
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