KXFDVAVAXSOL-26JAN01-0.1
Will the FDV ratio of Avalanche:Solana be above 0.1 before Jan 1, 2026?
$0.35
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.28 | $0.32 | $0.35 | 7.0¢ | 31.5% |
| NO | $0.65 | $0.69 | $0.72 | 7.0¢ | 68.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.28 | 0 | $0.35 | 0 |
| NO | $0.65 | 0 | $0.72 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.32 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.69 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.280 – 0.350 |
| Band Width | 0.070 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -3.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -3.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 700 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 669705 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 5 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the FDV ratio of Avalanche to Solana is above 0.1 at any point before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The ratio is calculated as the fully diluted valuation of the first token divided by the fully diluted valuation of the second token, both in USD as reported by CoinGecko. The market monitors continuously from issuance through the target date. If either token's FDV becomes unavailable or shows as null/zero on CoinGecko, the market resolves based on the last valid ratio before data became unavailable.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-10T11:04:22.207182
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