KXFEDGOVNOM-26-KWAR
Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
$0.2
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.15 | $0.17 | $0.2 | 5.0¢ | 17.5% |
| NO | $0.8 | $0.82 | $0.85 | 5.0¢ | 82.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.15 | 0 | $0.2 | 0 |
| NO | $0.8 | 0 | $0.85 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.17 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.82 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.150 – 0.200 |
| Band Width | 0.050 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -2.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 500 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | -0.01 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | 1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 1335027 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1030 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Kevin Warsh is nominated by the President as a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is a member of the Board of Governors.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-10T15:32:57.278668
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