KXFOREIGNTARIFF-26JAN01-JAP
Will Trump impose tariffs in the first 48 hours?
$0.12
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.05 | $0.09 | $0.12 | 7.0¢ | 8.5% |
| NO | $0.88 | $0.92 | $0.95 | 7.0¢ | 91.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.05 | 0 | $0.12 | 0 |
| NO | $0.88 | 0 | $0.95 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.09 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.92 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.050 – 0.120 |
| Band Width | 0.070 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -3.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -3.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 700 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.01 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | -1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 648234 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 18 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Japan imposes new tariffs (or raises tariff) on the United States after issuance but before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Global tariffs imposed by a foreign country (tariffs on all imports into that country) will not affect the value of this market, which is only about country/bloc-specific tariffs targeting the United States. For example, if a country imposes tariffs on a list of countries that includes the United States, but the United States does not have a country-specific rate and is simply subject to a universal rate, this will not count.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-10T17:39:40.416404
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