KXFUNDINGBILLS-26JAN01-OPT1
Will a bill containing two components: (1) A provision making temporary continuing appropriations to fund government agencies, and (2) a minibus making full-year appropriations for Military Construction-VA, Legislative Branch, and Agriculture appropriati
$0.75
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.71 | $0.73 | $0.75 | 4.0¢ | 73.0% |
| NO | $0.25 | $0.27 | $0.29 | 4.0¢ | 27.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.71 | 0 | $0.75 | 0 |
| NO | $0.25 | 0 | $0.29 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.73 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.27 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.710 – 0.750 |
| Band Width | 0.040 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -2.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -2.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 400 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.01 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | -1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | 0.71 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 941981 |
| 24h Volume | 85 |
| Open Interest | 79 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 1.08 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If a bill containing two components: (1) A provision making temporary continuing appropriations to fund government agencies, and (2) a minibus making full-year appropriations for Military Construction-VA, Legislative Branch, and Agriculture appropriations bills has become law before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-08T21:04:36.321111
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