KXG7LEADEROUT-45JAN01-EMAC
Will President of France be the first to leave office?
:: President of France
$0.69
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.59 | $0.64 | $0.69 | 10.0¢ | 64.0% |
| NO | $0.31 | $0.36 | $0.41 | 10.0¢ | 36.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.59 | 0 | $0.69 | 0 |
| NO | $0.31 | 0 | $0.41 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.64 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.36 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.590 – 0.690 |
| Band Width | 0.100 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -5.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -5.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 1000 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 627099 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 295 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the individual holding the title of President of France at the time of Issuance is the first within G7 leaders to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The individual must actually leave office and no longer hold their title. An announcement of resignation or intention to leave is not sufficient. The person who held the position at market issuance must be the one who leaves (not a successor). If a leader dies in office, all markets in the set settle at their last traded prices before the death, with the Exchange determining fair allocation if prices are not logically consistent. Leaders can leave office through resignation, removal, term limits, electoral defeat, coup, impeachment and removal, or other constitutional processes. The first leader to leave triggers resolution for all markets in the set - the one who left resolves to Yes, all others resolve to No.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-08T19:32:02.305788
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