KXGDP-26JAN30-T1.0
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2025?
1.0%
$0.89
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.88 | $0.89 | $0.89 | 1.0¢ | 88.5% |
| NO | $0.11 | $0.12 | $0.12 | 1.0¢ | 11.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.88 | 0 | $0.89 | 0 |
| NO | $0.11 | 0 | $0.12 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.89 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.12 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.880 – 0.890 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 100 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | -0.01 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | 0.01 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 3563214 |
| 24h Volume | 16 |
| Open Interest | 7382 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2025, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Sending data to LLM will refresh in a few minutes to see data
Last updated: 2025-11-09T10:20:49.731673
Technical Indicators
No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →
Let us know what you’d like to see →