KXGDPYEAR-25-B1.8

GDP growth in 2025?

$0.42

Market Snapshot

	Bid	Mid	Ask	Spread	Prob (Mid)
YES	$0.33	$0.38	$0.42	9.0¢	37.5%
NO	$0.58	$0.62	$0.67	9.0¢	62.5%

Overround (asks): 9.0% Underround (bids): 9.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

Side	Best Bid	Bid Size	Best Ask	Ask Size
YES	$0.33	100	$0.42	28
NO	$0.58	28	$0.67	100

Microprice	Imbalance	Depth ±$0.05
$0.4003	0.5625	100
$0.5997	-0.5625	1077

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1)	0.330 – 0.420
Band Width	0.090

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)	-4.5
NO Edge (ticks)	-4.5
Vig (bps/h)	0

State Change & Momentum

Metric	Value
ΔMid ($)	—
ΔSpread (¢)	1.0
ΔLast Trade ($)	—
Micro Pull ($)	0.0203

Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens	2024-12-19 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)	2026-01-26 08:29 AM ET (126d 14h 32m)
Expected Expiration	2026-01-26 10:00 AM ET (126d 16h 3m)

Early Close: nan

Book & Activity

Liquidity	41060140
24h Volume	22
Open Interest	36964
OI Turnover (24h)	0.0
Status	active

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

Target	Cost ↑	Cost ↓
0.05	1362.06	281431.77
0.25	10889.88	272498.4
0.50	18278.77	264060.51
0.75	27992.99	254502.04
0.95	77818.23	215911.5

↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary

If GDP growth in 2025 is between 1.6 to 2.0, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-21T22:56:50.631458

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