KXGGFILMSUPACTO-26-PAU
Will Paul Mescal win a Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture?
:: Hamnet
$0.35

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.21 $0.28 $0.35 14.0¢ 28.0%
NO $0.65 $0.72 $0.79 14.0¢ 72.0%
Overround (asks): 14.0% Underround (bids): 14.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.21 25 $0.35 25
NO $0.65 25 $0.79 25
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.28 0.0 0
$0.72 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.210 – 0.350
Band Width0.140

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-7.0
NO Edge (ticks)-7.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) 0.28
ΔSpread (¢) 14.0
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-22 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2027-01-11 10:00 AM ET (475d 14h 27m)
Expected Expiration2026-01-11 11:59 PM ET (111d 4h 26m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity194056
24h Volume0
Open Interest0
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0510.04804.1
0.2551.29762.85
0.50186.04678.1
0.75316.04498.1
0.95715.1499.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Paul Mescal has won a Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globe Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The 83rd Golden Globes are expected to be held on January 11, 2026.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-23T00:32:55.757050

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