KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-TBEG

Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?

$0.67

Market Snapshot

	Bid	Mid	Ask	Spread	Prob (Mid)
YES	$0.53	$0.6	$0.67	14.0¢	60.0%
NO	$0.33	$0.4	$0.47	14.0¢	40.0%

Overround (asks): 14.0% Underround (bids): 14.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

Side	Best Bid	Bid Size	Best Ask	Ask Size
YES	$0.53	35	$0.67	14
NO	$0.33	14	$0.47	35

Microprice	Imbalance	Depth ±$0.05
$0.63	0.4286	0
$0.37	-0.4286	0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1)	0.530 – 0.670
Band Width	0.140

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)	-7.0
NO Edge (ticks)	-7.0
Vig (bps/h)	0

State Change & Momentum

Metric	Value
ΔMid ($)	—
ΔSpread (¢)	—
ΔLast Trade ($)	0.05
Micro Pull ($)	0.03

Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens	2025-07-03 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)	2027-08-31 10:00 AM ET (706d 9h 9m)
Expected Expiration	2026-08-31 10:00 AM ET (341d 9h 9m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity	432383
24h Volume	10
Open Interest	514
OI Turnover (24h)	0.02
Status	active

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

Target	Cost ↑	Cost ↓
0.05	20.0	2345.93
0.25	20.0	2345.93
0.50	69.0	2296.93
0.75	287.93	2078.0
0.95	287.93	2078.0

↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary

If Tom Begich wins Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T04:50:16.271227

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