KXGOVCA-26-ALEX
Who will win the governorship in California?
:: Democratic
$0.23

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.12 $0.17 $0.23 11.0¢ 17.5%
NO $0.77 $0.82 $0.88 11.0¢ 82.5%
Overround (asks): 11.0% Underround (bids): 11.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.12 32 $0.23 40
NO $0.77 40 $0.88 32
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.1689 -0.1111 0
$0.8311 0.1111 40

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.120 – 0.230
Band Width0.110

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-5.5
NO Edge (ticks)-5.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) -0.01
ΔSpread (¢) 2.0
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) -0.0011
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-08-27 10:50 PM ET
Last Trade (Close)2027-11-03 11:00 AM ET (771d 3h 28m)
Expected Expiration2027-01-06 10:00 AM ET (470d 3h 28m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity389718
24h Volume0
Open Interest659
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0529.052942.54
0.25234.72836.84
0.50809.72136.84
0.751611.541335.0
0.952451.54495.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Alex Padilla is sworn in as the governor of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-23T11:31:24.660961

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