Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.85 | $0.9 | $0.95 | 10.0¢ | 90.0% |
| NO | $0.05 | $0.1 | $0.15 | 10.0¢ | 10.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.85 | 7 | $0.95 | 1055 |
| NO | $0.05 | 1055 | $0.15 | 7 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.8507 | -0.9868 | 1062 |
| $0.1493 | 0.9868 | 1055 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.850 – 0.950 |
| Band Width | 0.100 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -5.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -5.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.0493 |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-04-17 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-12-31 10:00 AM ET (464d 14h 23m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2026-12-31 10:00 AM ET (464d 14h 23m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 254337 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 2476 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 12.44 | 4056.85 |
| 0.25 | 80.44 | 3988.85 |
| 0.50 | 323.04 | 3746.25 |
| 0.75 | 695.04 | 3374.25 |
| 0.95 | 3285.09 | 2788.7 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: Will Elise Stefanik be the Republican nominee for Governor in New York?
Implied P(YES) (mid): 90% | YES/NO spreads: 5¢ / 10¢ | Overround(asks): 10% | Underround(bids): 10%.
Orderbook skew: The orderbook shows a significant preference for "YES" with a larger volume at lower price levels. Notable asks for "YES" at $0.95 for 200 units, indicating strong market confidence.
Recent prints: Light flow with no notable trade activity over the last 24 hours, reflecting a potential wait-and-see attitude among traders.
External context: - Elise Stefanik has a strong standing among Republican voters in New York, with recent polling indicating broad support. (Source: Polling Report) - The Republican primaries for the New York Governorship are set for June 2026, allowing ample time for candidates to gain traction. (Source: NYS Board of Elections) - Analysts predict a competitive primary season, especially with potential challengers emerging in early 2026. (Source: The New York Times)
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 85%.
Rationale: The strong polling data for Stefanik, combined with a favorable Republican landscape in New York, supports a high probability of her nomination despite the potential for challengers.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Long YES
Entry: $0.95 | Invalid/Stop: $0.80 | Target: $1.10
Thesis: Given her current popularity, the market's pricing reflects an underestimation of Stefanik's candidacy.
Key risks/catalysts: External challengers emerging, late fluctuations in voter sentiment.
Idea 2 — Short NO
Entry: $0.05 | Invalid/Stop: $0.10 | Target: $0.03
Thesis: Current pricing for "NO" reflects low probability, potentially overestimating the chance of anyone else vying for the nomination.
Key risks/catalysts: A strong challenger could materialize and shift perception sharply.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 17:24
Expected expiration (ET): December 31, 2026, 15:00
Known release windows: Primary elections slated for June 2026, critical polling data expected in early 2026.
Sources
- Polling Report — https://www.pollingreport.com — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
- NYS Board of Elections — https://www.elections.ny.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
- The New York Times — https://www.nytimes.com — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
- Federal Election Commission — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
- FiveThirtyEight — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
- The Cook Political Report — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
- RealClearPolitics — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
- Gallup — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
- Reuters Politics — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
- The Wall Street Journal — Accessed: 2023-10-02 10:00 ET
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