KXGOVREOPEN2025-26JAN01
Will the federal government shut down for fewer than 92 days?
days
$0.94
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.93 | $0.94 | $0.94 | 1.0¢ | 93.5% |
| NO | $0.06 | $0.07 | $0.07 | 1.0¢ | 6.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.93 | 0 | $0.94 | 0 |
| NO | $0.06 | 0 | $0.07 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.94 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.07 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.930 – 0.940 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 100 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | -0.01 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | -0.02 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 12152862 |
| 24h Volume | 205828 |
| Open Interest | 1190562 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.17 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the ongoing federal government shutdown (starting October 1) lasts for less than 92 days (ends before 10:00 AM ET January 1, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
A shutdown is determined by notices on the U.S. Office of Personnel Management website indicating the federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. Days are counted based on notices checked at 10:00 AM ET each day. If there are multiple government shutdowns during the relevant period, this market only applies to the first shutdown, as the market will resolve after the end of the first shutdown. Notices of emergency furloughs or impacted government operations count toward the shutdown days. Office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not count. If no shutdown occurs during the period, markets asking for counts above zero resolve to No, while markets asking for zero days resolve to Yes. Days count toward the total when OPM's website indicates an ongoing shutdown due to lapsed appropriations, regardless of whether such days are also federal holidays. For example, if a shutdown notice remains on October 13, 2025 (Columbus Day), that day will count.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-08T14:57:54.211593
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