KXGOVWINOMR-26-TT
Wil Tom Tiffany be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
$0.72

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.58 $0.65 $0.72 14.0¢ 65.0%
NO $0.28 $0.35 $0.42 14.0¢ 35.0%
Overround (asks): 14.0% Underround (bids): 14.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.58 25 $0.72 25
NO $0.28 25 $0.42 25
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.65 0.0 0
$0.35 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.580 – 0.720
Band Width0.140

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-7.0
NO Edge (ticks)-7.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) 0.16
ΔSpread (¢) -80.0
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-01-26 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-11-03 10:00 AM ET (405d 13h 34m)
Expected Expiration2026-11-03 10:00 AM ET (405d 13h 34m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity199431
24h Volume0
Open Interest2086
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.056.01373.93
0.2588.161291.77
0.50260.161219.77
0.75655.66724.27
0.951129.21449.27
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Tom Tiffany wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Wisconsin Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T01:25:08.323556

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