KXGREENTERRITORY-29
Will the United States acquire any part of Greenland before 2029?
$0.31
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.3 | $0.3 | $0.31 | 1.0¢ | 30.5% |
| NO | $0.69 | $0.69 | $0.7 | 1.0¢ | 69.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.3 | 0 | $0.31 | 0 |
| NO | $0.69 | 0 | $0.7 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.3 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.69 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.300 – 0.310 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -0.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 100 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 24803089 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 54707 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls any part of Greenland that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. any part of Greenland must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-09T16:30:13.930164
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