KXHUNGARYPARLI-26-OPP
Who will win the next Hungarian general election?
:: All seats won by all other parties and representatives total 100 or more seats
$0.54
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.44 | $0.49 | $0.54 | 10.0¢ | 49.0% |
| NO | $0.46 | $0.51 | $0.56 | 10.0¢ | 51.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.44 | 0 | $0.54 | 0 |
| NO | $0.46 | 0 | $0.56 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.49 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.51 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.440 – 0.540 |
| Band Width | 0.100 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -5.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -5.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 1000 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | -0.01 |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 757534 |
| 24h Volume | 98 |
| Open Interest | 546 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.18 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the winner of the next Hungarian general election expected to be held in 2026 at the latest is Opposition majority, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
For presidential elections, the relevant question is whether the person wins the election, regardless of their partisan affiliation. For legislative elections, the relevant question is whether the party or alliance wins more seats than any other party or alliance.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Sending data to LLM will refresh in a few minutes to see data
Last updated: 2025-11-10T08:36:49.907407
Technical Indicators
No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →
Let us know what you’d like to see →