KXKRAKENBANKPUBLIC-27JAN01-JPM
Will JPMorgan Chase take Kraken public before Jan 1, 2027?
$0.39
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.3 | $0.34 | $0.39 | 9.0¢ | 34.5% |
| NO | $0.61 | $0.66 | $0.7 | 9.0¢ | 65.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.3 | 0 | $0.39 | 0 |
| NO | $0.61 | 0 | $0.7 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.34 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.66 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.300 – 0.390 |
| Band Width | 0.090 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -4.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -4.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 900 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 394410 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 807 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If JPMorgan Chase serves as a lead underwriter for Kraken's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The bank must serve as lead underwriter, book-running manager, or global coordinator as documented in SEC filings (Form S-1 or final prospectus) or official announcements. Joint book-running managers qualify. Direct listings, SPAC mergers, secondary offerings, and private placements do not qualify. If the bank merges with another institution, the surviving entity under any name qualifies. For dual listings, only the U.S. portion is considered. Even if the IPO is later shelved, the market resolves Yes based on the announcement of the underwriting relationship.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-09T19:09:23.110907
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