KXLEADEROUT-26-NMAD
Nicolás Maduro out this year?
$0.18

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.17 $0.17 $0.18 1.0¢ 17.5%
NO $0.82 $0.82 $0.83 1.0¢ 82.5%
Overround (asks): 1.0% Underround (bids): 1.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.17 0 $0.18 0
NO $0.82 0 $0.83 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.17 0.0 0
$0.82 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.1700.180
Band Width0.010

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-0.5
NO Edge (ticks)-0.5
Vig (bps/h)100

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) 0.03
ΔSpread (¢) -1.0
ΔLast Trade ($) 0.04
Micro Pull ($)
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens
Last Trade (Close) ()
Expected Expiration ()

Book & Activity

Liquidity11232188
24h Volume55237
Open Interest191636
OI Turnover (24h)0.29
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Nicolás Maduro leaves office before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
An announcement that Nicolás Maduro will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Nicolás Maduro leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

Sending data to LLM will refresh in a few minutes to see data

Last updated: 2025-11-08T16:30:57.510815

Technical Indicators

No technical indicators are currently available.
Let us know what you’d like to see →