KXLEAVECAMARCA-25
Will Marc Andreessen move out of California this year?
$0.1

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.03 $0.07 $0.1 7.0¢ 6.5%
NO $0.9 $0.94 $0.97 7.0¢ 93.5%
Overround (asks): 7.0% Underround (bids): 7.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.03 0 $0.1 0
NO $0.9 0 $0.97 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.07 0.0 0
$0.94 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.030 – 0.100
Band Width0.070

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-3.5
NO Edge (ticks)-3.5
Vig (bps/h)700

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) —
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) —
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens—
Last Trade (Close)— (—)
Expected Expiration— (—)

Book & Activity

Liquidity101962
24h Volume0
Open Interest28
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Marc Andreessen announces they're moving away from California before Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
An announcement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes.

Related Markets

Will Marc Andreessen move out of California this year?
$0.1

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-10T05:18:25.126906

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