KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?
$0.68

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.6 $0.64 $0.68 8.0¢ 64.0%
NO $0.32 $0.36 $0.4 8.0¢ 36.0%
Overround (asks): 8.0% Underround (bids): 8.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.6 14 $0.68 32
NO $0.32 32 $0.4 14
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.6243 -0.3913 14
$0.3757 0.3913 97

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.6000.680
Band Width0.080

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-4.0
NO Edge (ticks)-4.0
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) 0.64
ΔSpread (¢) 8.0
ΔLast Trade ($) 0.58
Micro Pull ($) -0.0157
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-09-23 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2026-07-31 11:59 PM ET (311d 2h 33m)
Expected Expiration2026-08-01 10:00 AM ET (311d 12h 34m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity613816
24h Volume167
Open Interest161
OI Turnover (24h)1.04
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0535.02140.3
0.25295.171855.13
0.50295.171855.13
0.75654.681495.62
0.951416.1734.2
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The market resolves to Yes upon either an official announcement of departure or actual departure from office. An announcement must be made by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the governing body of the office and reported by at least one Source Agency. Announcements of leaving more than one year from the statement do not resolve the market to Yes. Leaving office includes resignation, termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or term expiration without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining office do NOT qualify. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion. Forced departures satisfy the criterion even without prior announcement.

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-24T01:25:10.787756

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