KXLEAVETISCH-27JAN01
Will Jessica Tisch leave NYPD Commissioner before Jan 1, 2027?
$0.65
Market Snapshot
Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
YES | $0.63 | $0.64 | $0.65 | 2.0¢ | 64.0% |
NO | $0.35 | $0.36 | $0.37 | 2.0¢ | 36.0% |
Order Book (Top)
Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
---|---|---|---|---|
YES | $0.63 | 1 | $0.65 | 44 |
NO | $0.35 | 44 | $0.37 | 1 |
Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
---|---|---|
$0.6304 | -0.9556 | 2 |
$0.3696 | 0.9556 | 276 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
Prob Band (0–1) | 0.630 – 0.650 |
Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
YES Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
Metric | Value |
---|---|
ΔMid ($) | — |
ΔSpread (¢) | — |
ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
Micro Pull ($) | -0.0096 |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
Opens | 2025-09-12 10:00 AM ET |
Last Trade (Close) | 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET (464d 2h 6m) |
Expected Expiration | 2027-01-01 10:00 AM ET (464d 12h 7m) |
Book & Activity
Liquidity | 483558 |
24h Volume | 0 |
Open Interest | 30 |
OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
---|---|---|
0.05 | 96.92 | 1554.52 |
0.25 | 96.92 | 1554.52 |
0.50 | 96.92 | 1554.52 |
0.75 | 394.15 | 1257.29 |
0.95 | 682.2 | 969.24 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If Jessica Tisch has either officially announced their intention to leave NYPD Commissioner or has actually left NYPD Commissioner before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The market resolves to Yes upon either an official announcement of departure or actual departure from office. An announcement must be made by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the governing body of the office and reported by at least one Source Agency. Announcements of leaving more than one year from the statement do not resolve the market to Yes. Leaving office includes resignation, termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or term expiration without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining office do NOT qualify. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion. Forced departures satisfy the criterion even without prior announcement.
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-09-24T02:52:06.354801
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