KXLEBANONPARLI-26-FORCES
Who will win the next Lebanese general election?
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$0.61
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.52 | $0.56 | $0.61 | 9.0¢ | 56.5% |
| NO | $0.39 | $0.43 | $0.48 | 9.0¢ | 43.5% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.52 | 0 | $0.61 | 0 |
| NO | $0.39 | 0 | $0.48 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.56 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.43 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.520 – 0.610 |
| Band Width | 0.090 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -4.5 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -4.5 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 900 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | -1.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 455688 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 644 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If the winner of the next Lebanese general election expected to be held in 2026 at the latest is Lebanese Forces, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a presidential or other direct election, the winner is the candidate who is officially declared elected by that authority and is subsequently sworn in, or whose inauguration date passes without a different person taking office. The market will resolve for that candidate even if they die or are incapacitated after the election but before taking office. If an election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date, for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-10T05:23:46.535793
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