KXLOSEREELECTIONRSEN-2026-0
Will exactly 0 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?
$0.19
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.11 | $0.15 | $0.19 | 8.0¢ | 15.0% |
| NO | $0.81 | $0.85 | $0.89 | 8.0¢ | 85.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.11 | 0 | $0.19 | 0 |
| NO | $0.81 | 0 | $0.89 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.15 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.85 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.110 – 0.190 |
| Band Width | 0.080 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -4.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -4.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 800 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 743463 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 1336 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If exactly 0 members of the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-10T05:20:02.808573
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