KXMAINNETFIRSTMONADMEGAETH-27JAN01
Will Monad launch their mainnet first?
$0.98

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.92 $0.95 $0.98 6.0¢ 95.0%
NO $0.02 $0.05 $0.08 6.0¢ 5.0%
Overround (asks): 6.0% Underround (bids): 6.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.92 0 $0.98 0
NO $0.02 0 $0.08 0
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.95 0.0 0
$0.05 0.0 0

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.9200.980
Band Width0.060

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-3.0
NO Edge (ticks)-3.0
Vig (bps/h)600

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($)
ΔSpread (¢)
ΔLast Trade ($)
Micro Pull ($)
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens
Last Trade (Close) ()
Expected Expiration ()

Book & Activity

Liquidity2075488
24h Volume0
Open Interest713
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.050.00.0
0.250.00.0
0.500.00.0
0.750.00.0
0.950.00.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Monad launched their mainnet before MegaETH and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
A mainnet launch occurs when a blockchain network is publicly accessible for transactions, real tokens with economic value can be transferred, the network operates independently from testnets, and the project officially announces the mainnet is live. The launch time is determined by the timestamp of the first user transaction on the network. If both projects launch on the same calendar day (UTC), resolution is based on the earlier transaction timestamp. Testnets, canary networks, beta/alpha networks with restricted access, and Layer 2 solutions (unless specifically designated) do not constitute mainnet launches. If neither project launches before the deadline, the market resolves to "Neither."

Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-11-10T06:57:58.205716

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