KXMAMDANISHERRILL-25NOV04-NJGOV
Will New Jersey governor have the largest margin of victory in 2025 New York City mayoral and New Jersey gubernatorial election?
$1.0
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.99 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 1.0¢ | 99.0% |
| NO | $0.0 | $0.01 | $0.01 | 1.0¢ | 1.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.99 | 0 | $1.0 | 0 |
| NO | $0.0 | 0 | $0.01 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.01 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.990 – 1.000 |
| Band Width | 0.010 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -0.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 100 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 5403903 |
| 24h Volume | 8 |
| Open Interest | 28579 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If New Jersey governor achieves the largest margin of victory among all elections in 2025 New York City mayoral and New Jersey gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in vote share (expressed as percentage) between first and second place finishers. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. If official results aren't available by the deadline, preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95% of expected vote are used. For ranked choice elections, the margin from the final round is used. Margins are compared as percentages, not absolute vote differences. If multiple elections have identical margins and relevant options are listed, each tied option resolves to Yes at $1.00 divided by the number of tied options.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-11T16:58:33.094434
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