KXMASSIEDISCHARGE-26JAN01-DEMOCRATIC
Will Democratic provide the 218 signature on Massie discharge petition on Epstein files?
$0.91
Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.85 | $0.88 | $0.91 | 6.0¢ | 88.0% |
| NO | $0.09 | $0.12 | $0.15 | 6.0¢ | 12.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.85 | 0 | $0.91 | 0 |
| NO | $0.09 | 0 | $0.15 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.88 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.12 | 0.0 | 0 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.850 – 0.910 |
| Band Width | 0.060 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -3.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -3.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 600 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | 0.03 |
| ΔSpread (¢) | -6.0 |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.
Timing
| Opens | — |
| Last Trade (Close) | — (—) |
| Expected Expiration | — (—) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 383010 |
| 24h Volume | 1 |
| Open Interest | 580 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.25 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.50 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.75 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.95 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.
Rules
Primary
If a Democrat has signed Discharge Petition No. 9 for H.Res. 581 (Massie discharge petition on Epstein files) as the 218th signature before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Secondary
A signature occurs when the Member's name appears on the official list maintained by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. The signature must be recorded and published in accordance with House rules. If a Member signs and then withdraws their signature before or after the petition reaches 218 signatures, this still satisfies the signing requirement. Non-voting Delegates and the Resident Commissioner cannot sign discharge petitions. Party affiliation is determined at the time of signing. If a Member dies or resigns after signing, their signature remains valid unless removed by their successor. For ordinal signature markets (e.g., "Who will provide the 218th signature?"), the market resolves based on which party the Member providing that specific numbered signature belongs to.
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
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Last updated: 2025-11-11T12:35:48.581447
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