KXMAYORLA-26-KBAS
Who will win Los Angeles Mayoral Election?
$0.61

Market Snapshot

BidMidAskSpreadProb (Mid)
YES $0.54 $0.57 $0.61 7.0¢ 57.5%
NO $0.39 $0.42 $0.46 7.0¢ 42.5%
Overround (asks): 7.0% Underround (bids): 7.0% Notional: $1

Order Book (Top)

SideBest BidBid SizeBest AskAsk Size
YES $0.54 1 $0.61 2
NO $0.39 2 $0.46 1
MicropriceImbalanceDepth ±$0.05
$0.5633 -0.3333 530
$0.4367 0.3333 60

Fair Probability Band & Arb

Prob Band (0–1) 0.540 – 0.610
Band Width0.070

Edge & Time-Weighted Vig

YES Edge (ticks)-3.5
NO Edge (ticks)-3.5
Vig (bps/h)0

State Change & Momentum

MetricValue
ΔMid ($) 0.01
ΔSpread (¢) —
ΔLast Trade ($) —
Micro Pull ($) -0.0067
Tightening (ΔSpread < 0) shown in green. Positive Micro Pull = buy-side pressure; negative = sell-side.

Timing

Opens2025-07-09 10:00 AM ET
Last Trade (Close)2027-06-02 10:00 AM ET (617d 7h 10m)
Expected Expiration2026-06-02 10:00 AM ET (252d 7h 10m)

Book & Activity

Liquidity3356737
24h Volume0
Open Interest3887
OI Turnover (24h)0.0
Statusactive

Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)

TargetCost ↑Cost ↓
0.0572.029070.57
0.25602.8828779.69
0.502150.8826931.69
0.754640.9724441.6
0.956942.5722178.0
↑ uses asks to push up; ↓ uses bids to push down.

Rules

Primary
If Karen Bass wins Los Angeles Mayoral Election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Liquidity and Market Impact Overview

This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.

Yes 🔵 Market

No 🟡 Market

🤖 AI Market Insight

This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.

AI Summary:

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Last updated: 2025-09-23T06:49:59.919082

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