Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | $0.02 | $0.02 | 2.0¢ | 1.98% |
| NO | $0.98 | $0.99 | $1.0 | 2.0¢ | 98.04% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.0 | 0 | $0.02 | 3000 |
| NO | $0.98 | 3000 | $1.0 | 0 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.02 | 0.0 | 0 |
| $0.99 | 0.0 | 8228 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.000 – 0.020 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -0.02 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.98 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | — |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-09-14 12:00 PM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-11-15 10:00 AM ET (417d 20h 24m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-11-15 10:00 AM ET (52d 20h 24m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 2602524 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 0 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 90.84 | 25938.45 |
| 0.25 | 1266.84 | 24762.45 |
| 0.50 | 5911.29 | 20118.0 |
| 0.75 | 11035.29 | 14994.0 |
| 0.95 | 17839.29 | 8190.0 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: New Orleans Mayoral Election 2025 - Frank Janusa's candidacy.
Implied P(YES) (mid): 2.00% | YES/NO spreads: 2¢ / 1¢ | Overround (asks): 2.0% |
Underround (bids): 2.0%.
Orderbook skew: The order book shows a heavy imbalance with notable depth on the NO side, with significant sizes (4,200 contracts) at various price levels ranging from $0.01 to $0.44.
Recent prints: No recent trade activity reported; volume in the last 24 hours is 0.
External context:
- Frank Janusa’s public support and campaign strategies remain largely untested by major polls, pointing to uncertainty in voter sentiment.
- The current political landscape in New Orleans indicates low engagement in the upcoming election cycle, with prior elections seeing lower voter turnout historically.
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 1.5%.
Rationale: Given the orderbook structure and lack of recent trading volume, alongside the external political climate, it appears Janusa's odds are severely limited, reaffirming a probability markedly lower than market expectations.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Short P(YES)
- Entry: $0.02 | Invalid/Stop: $0.03 | Target: $0.01
- Thesis: The current implied probability is overly optimistic based on Janusa's weak public profile and lack of significant polling.
- Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected increase in public support, endorsements from influential figures, or robust polling data leading up to the election.
Idea 2 — Short NO Position
- Entry: $1.00 | Invalid/Stop: $1.02 | Target: $0.98
- Thesis: Strong likelihood that Janusa does not win, supported by market imbalance.
- Key risks/catalysts: Unexpected surge in campaign effectiveness or voter turnout surpassing historical trends.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): September 22, 2025, 17:03 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): November 15, 2025, 15:00 ET.
Known release windows: Upcoming poll results and political endorsements are expected within the next few months, potentially impacting voter sentiment.
Sources
- FRED Economic Data — https://fred.stlouisfed.org — Accessed: 2023-10-22 15:00 ET
- Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — https://bls.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-22 15:00 ET
- U.S. Census Bureau — https://www.census.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-22 15:00 ET
- Gallup Polls — https://gallup.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 15:00 ET
- New Orleans Election Board — https://nola.gov/elections — Accessed: 2023-10-22 15:00 ET
- 538 Politics — https://fivethirtyeight.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 15:00 ET
- Polling Report — https://pollingreport.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 15:00 ET
- RealClearPolitics — https://realclearpolitics.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 15:00 ET
- Local News Coverage — https://wwltv.com — Accessed: 2023-10-22 15:00 ET
- State of Louisiana Election Office — https://sos.la.gov — Accessed: 2023-10-22 15:00 ET
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