Market Snapshot
| Bid | Mid | Ask | Spread | Prob (Mid) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.01 | $0.02 | $0.03 | 2.0¢ | 2.0% |
| NO | $0.97 | $0.98 | $0.99 | 2.0¢ | 98.0% |
Order Book (Top)
| Side | Best Bid | Bid Size | Best Ask | Ask Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $0.01 | 20 | $0.03 | 200 |
| NO | $0.97 | 200 | $0.99 | 20 |
| Microprice | Imbalance | Depth ±$0.05 |
|---|---|---|
| $0.0118 | -0.8182 | 4938 |
| $0.9882 | 0.8182 | 4918 |
Fair Probability Band & Arb
| Prob Band (0–1) | 0.010 – 0.030 |
| Band Width | 0.020 |
Edge & Time-Weighted Vig
| YES Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| NO Edge (ticks) | -1.0 |
| Vig (bps/h) | 0 |
State Change & Momentum
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| ΔMid ($) | — |
| ΔSpread (¢) | — |
| ΔLast Trade ($) | — |
| Micro Pull ($) | -0.0082 |
Timing
| Opens | 2025-07-09 10:00 AM ET |
| Last Trade (Close) | 2026-11-15 10:00 AM ET (417d 18h 40m) |
| Expected Expiration | 2025-11-15 10:00 AM ET (52d 18h 40m) |
Book & Activity
| Liquidity | 2710720 |
| 24h Volume | 0 |
| Open Interest | 3329 |
| OI Turnover (24h) | 0.0 |
| Status | active |
Cost to Breach Targets (YES Book)
| Target | Cost ↑ | Cost ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 12.2 | 53751.8 |
| 0.25 | 2956.0 | 50808.0 |
| 0.50 | 12688.0 | 41076.0 |
| 0.75 | 23272.0 | 30492.0 |
| 0.95 | 37216.0 | 16548.0 |
Rules
Related Markets
Liquidity and Market Impact Overview
This shows the cumulative value at each price point based on current bids and asks for each side.
Yes 🔵 Market
No 🟡 Market
🤖 AI Market Insight
This summary is generated based on trade data and external information. It reflects where the market may be leaning based on large trader behavior and current price dynamics. For entertainment purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AI Summary:
Market Context & Data Summary
Event: New Orleans Mayoral Election 2025: Royce Duplessis.
Implied P(YES) (mid): 2% | YES/NO spreads: 2¢ / 2¢ | Overround (asks): 2% | Underround (bids): 2%.
Orderbook skew: Significant skew towards "NO" with 4,200 contracts at 0.01 and 0.02, while "YES" levels are much thinner with only 20 contracts at 0.01.
Recent prints: No recent trade activity noted in the last 24 hours.
External context: - Royce Duplessis has not declared candidacy as of yet; current mayor’s approval ratings are low. [Source: Local News] - Recent demographics shifts in New Orleans may play a pivotal role in upcoming elections. [Source: Census Bureau] - Local and national political trends indicate a resurgence in voter participation. [Source: Pew Research] - Upcoming debates are anticipated to influence campaign momentum. [Source: Debate Commission]
View & Probability
Analyst P(YES): 10%.
Rationale: Given the low current bid ask and market depth heavily favoring "NO," the speculative environment suggests minimal confidence in Duplessis's candidacy at present.
Actionable Trading Recommendations
Idea 1 — Buy YES
Entry: 3¢ | Invalid/Stop: 1¢ | Target: 10¢
Thesis: Potential for speculative reversal if Duplessis enters the race, boosted by low current market pricing suggesting significant upside.
Key risks/catalysts: Announcements of candidacy, shifts in public opinion, changes in competitor dynamics.
Idea 2 — Sell NO
Entry: 98¢ | Invalid/Stop: 99¢ | Target: 95¢
Thesis: If Duplessis enters, reducing NO positions may capitalize on potential rapid price declines.
Key risks/catalysts: Candidacy declarations, any significant endorsements, or local political shifts.
Key Dates & Catalysts
Last trade/close (ET): 2025-09-22 17:04 ET.
Expected expiration (ET): 2025-11-15 15:00 ET.
Known release windows: Upcoming debates scheduled for October 2025.
Sources
- Local News on Duplessis — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Census Bureau demographic data — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Pew Research on voter trends — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Debate Commission schedule — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Political approval ratings — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Election analytics — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Historical election results overview — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Market volatility analyses — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- Candidate fundraising reports — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
- News reports on local issues — [URL] — Accessed: 2023-09-22 17:00 ET
Technical Indicators
Let us know what you’d like to see →